As COVID rises, what can the data tell us about the Airbnb takeover? – TechCrunch
DoorDash filed for release on Friday, which means we’ll have at least one more unicorn IPO before the end of 2020. For a high-level look at its numbers, I wrote this, Danny covered who will profit from the case, and I noodle on the impact of COVID-19 on its business.
I’m bringing up all of this because there is another unicorn affected by COVID-19 that we expect to see going public in a very short time: Airbnb.
When Airbnb filed for release in August, it seemed like a solid plan. The company has been widely reported as being on a resumption of its COVID slump, public markets were hot for growth and tech stocks, and the number of pandemic cases in the United States was dropping from its summer highs. It looked good for Airbnb to complete its Q3, drop its audience S-1 with the new numbers, and laugh to the bank after showing investors that even a global pandemic and industry depression of the journey could not stop it.
And even. The United States and the world as a whole are now in the midst of the worst COVID-19 peak to date, and consumer spending decreases just before getting the company’s S-1. November seems less attractive for an Airbnb recovery than August or September. Still, when Airbnb files – next week, the scuttlebutt says, so be prepared – we’ll only be looking at its numbers until the third quarter.
This is effectively the same timeframe for a data set that people from Cardify sent and I dug. According to the company, which tracks real-time consumer spending data, here’s a look at how Airbnb recovered before its larger industry after the initial recession in accommodation spending during a pandemic:
Awesome, isn’t it? Unfortunately for Airbnb, the initial demand boom from late June to July has faded over time.
Zooming in a bit, here is the data on Airbnb spending from July 2020 to the end of October, the first month of the fourth quarter, compared to the same period of 2019:
Declines, then, but still encouraging data for the company despite everything. I wouldn’t have expected Airbnb’s spending – via third parties, admittedly – to be this high.
The trend of people renting a house for a month seems to have waned somewhat, in case you factored that into your mental calculations regarding Airbnb income from the charts above. Cardify told TechCrunch that after peaking at around + 70% between March and April, “average booking sizes have now normalized and are around 30% higher on a year-over-year basis.”
There is weakness in October, the charts show, but it appears to be at least partially seasonal given the 2019 line, so I don’t want to over-attribute the increase in COVID cases as the cause. The falling line, however, has been picked up in SimilarWeb data that has also been shared with The Exchange. The dataset covered the volume of accommodation reservations worldwide for a number of travel services, including Airbnb. Its tracking data from the US market showed that a rebound in bookings through September that caught up to March lows was curtailed by October declines. The resumption of bookings in Europe peaked in July and has steadily declined since. Asian volume is up, but down sharply from previous levels.
It was a mixed picture, but as Airbnb does better than its larger industry through Cardify, the aggregate data could lead us to be more pessimistic than we otherwise need to be. We’ll see what the real numbers are shortly, but I couldn’t help but share what I was reading with you. On the way to S-1!
Before DoorDash files, we were going to talk about Brex today in this post Airbnb space. But, since we’re very busy, expect those notes early next week on The Exchange.
It’s been a busy week with revenue so I collected some call notes with selected companies after their report. Our apologies to everyone’s favorite reporting company, but space is limited.
Appian crushed profit expectations. What drove the growth of low-code application development services? According to CEO Matt Calkins, it wasn’t just one thing. Instead, the company’s performance was driven by a long ramp, he said, although he also said that the concept of low code has reached public consciousness to new and higher levels. high in recent quarters.
Why? The chaos of the year prompted companies to adopt new models faster than they expected. Link this result to the fact that the acceleration of digital transformation is real, which is good news for startups. (To learn more about Appian and the low-code space, head here.)
Alteryx gave The Exchange a first profit, allowing new CEO Dean Stoecker and new CEO Mark Anderson to discuss the results. The company crush expectations of Q3, but this is the fourth trimester projections did not appeal to investors. What’s new ? Anderson has argued that ARR growth, not GAAP revenue projections, is the most transparent and clear vision of a growing software company, to paraphrase his thinking. You can’t ignore income, he said, but given the nuances in how income is counted, watch out for ARR.
Alteryx has a solid ARR target for 2021. We’ll see how investors view their fourth quarter results and whether they align their thinking with that of the new CEO. The former CEO of Alteryx is optimistic, saying that over time the market will realize that analytics is at the epicenter of digital transformation. And his company will be there with code to sell.
Moving on, earlier this week, I surveyed a number of VCs in the software venture capital market after Monday’s massive sale and my question on what could happen to public and private software publishers if other stocks suddenly became more attractive – the strong vaccine news Monday was then overwhelmed by an increase in cases as the week progressed, but on Monday Zoom lost billions in value as investors fled.
A series of responses came late, but I still wanted to share them as they were more optimistic than expected. In the opinion of Laela Robust, general partner at Alphabet Uppercase G, “Private software investors are unlikely to change their investing habits due to fluctuations in the public market,” later adding that “changes in the public market are expected to be very extreme – as in 30% or more – in order to d ” have an impact on growth. stage evaluations.
The link between public valuations and trading patterns and the deployment of private capital exists, but the degree of link between the two depends on what is happening at any given time, and it seems that at present, the enthusiasm of private investors for software is sustainable.
Sturdy explained why it can be: “Long-term secular trends in cloud adoption, automation and AI, data, security, fintech infrastructure and the rapid and continuous acceleration of transformation digital technology will help tech companies maintain their status as darlings of growth investors in the private and public markets.
Miscellaneous and miscellaneous
And finally, the rest of the stuff that I couldn’t access this week. Here we are:
- I spoke with Cambridge Capital of Innovation, a neat venture capital firm out of Cambridge in the UK – not Cambridge on the US east coast. More to say here, but the good news is that innovation hubs are really becoming start-up factories around the world.
- I got my hands on a first copy of a record poll Allocate. He comes out on Monday I think, but he says that “only 20% of [LP] respondents said COVID had slowed down their investing activities, ”which helps explain all of the funds we’ve seen over the past few months.
Ending on something funny, remember this look we did on the performance of various startups in Q3? It was fun. Anyhoo, “online form builder” without code JotForm told The Exchange that its revenue was up 50% from its 2019 results, that its corporate customer base was up 620%, and that it expects to reach “100,000 paying users in total by the end of the year”. Cared for!